Last year, when the Liberal Democrats were suffering virtual annihilation in other parts of the country (Manchester, Liverpool, Rochdale, Sheffield, Newcatle upon Tyne, Hull, Birmingham, etc.) in Portsmouth the Liberal Democrat vote held up pretty well, dropping by just 1% since the 2007 elections. With less than a third of the vote, they took 9 of the seats up for election whilst the Tories with 37.33% of the vote took 4 seats and Labour with nearly 26% of the vote, managed to take only 1 seat (actually losing Nelson to the Lib Dems in the shape of their former leader, Leo Madden).
Whilst Labour can take some comfort from the fact that it increased its vote from 2007 by nearly 10%, it will need to be making progress this year in terms of gaining seats if it is to become a political force again in the city.
I will look at what I believe to be the target seats, in terms of both the 2008 results when these wards were technically last up and 2011 when, as they are three member seats, they were actually fought. As it happens, I think only three of the wards are safe: Drayton and Farlington, Fratton and Hilsea (and I am not so sure about the latter).
2008 was a disaster for Labour when they were left with no seats, losing Nelson to the Conservatives (and just coming third in the process behind the Lib Dems) and failing to regain Paulsgrove from the Tories. Their share of the vote fell to 13.4%. The elections were a great success for the Conservatives as they took 44.8% of the vote and 8 of the 14 seats up for election. The Liberal Democrats lost Milton to the Conservatives and, showing a capacity for 'getting out the vote' where it mattered, it held on by small majorities in Eastney and Craneswater (14 votes), St Thomas (29 votes), St Jude (112 votes - technically a gain, as the Liberal councillor had joined them) and just missed out in Baffins (31 votes) and Nelson (59 votes). The Liberal Democrat share of the vote in 2008 was 34.5%, up by 34.4% on 2004.
The surprise this year is the total disappearance of the English Democratic Party who were taking substantial shares of the vote in wards where they stood. Where will there votes go? Last year, not too surprisingly perhaps, they seemed to go to Labour.
Of course, if there is a Liberal Democrat meltdown, all bets are off.
If you don't like my ward statistics, take it up with the ONS as I have taken them from there.
Paulsgrove
Paulsgrove is a fairly mixed area, in the sense of being very deprived in places and very affluent in others. It contains the Paulsgrove Estate (made famous by the 'anti-paedophile' panic and marches of a few years ago - good job there NOTW, we miss you not), the exclusive Port Solent marina estate and part of the Wymering estate.
It has a fairly young population with a median age of 34, with 16.95% of the population being over 60 (6.5% over 75). 18% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, over 7.16% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 41.52% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 6.54% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 3.77% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 17.36%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so.
A high 15.13% of the population are single-parent households. 15.06% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit will have an effect here.
At one time, Labour were a fairly safe bet in Paulsgrove but there has always been a significant Conservative vote. Despite their success elsewhere in the city, the Liberal Democrats haven't managed to take a seat here and only managed 10.2% of the vote in Labour's nadir year of 2008 (in 2007, they came 4th after the English Democrats). Last year, they did slightly better with 11.37%. The Conservative candidate, Matt Davies, is defending a vote share of 33.36% from last May - the sitting Conservative, Mike Blake, stood down last November (a long time without a byelection but probably a money saving exercise seeing as he was due to defend the seat this May).
The Labour party is making the proposed closure of the local library an issue in this campaign and, I would guess, that dissatisfaction with many of the benefit cuts and the loss of local funding due to the financial situation, would make this a safe bet for a Labour gain this year and John Ferrett (candidate before in Central Southsea and in Portsmouth South at the last General Election). The Conservatives will be happy to hold their vote share and I would say the same for the Liberal Democrats and their wonderfully named candidate, Roger Inkpen - a family name that has stood for the Liberal Democrats on many occasions.
Labour Gain
2008 (2011)
Mike Blake C 1236 50.4% (33.36%)
Graham Heaney Lab 963 39.3% (55.28%)
Matthew Winnington LD 251 10.2% (11.37%)
Full candidate list: DAVIES Matt (Con), FERRETT John (Lab) INKPEN Roger (Lib Dem)
Nelson
Nelson ward is home to the continental ferry port as well as HMS Excellent on Whale Island. The electorate are mainly skilled working class with a significant number of wealthier residents.
This will be a fascinating three-way battle with each of the candidates hopeful of victory. Whilst it appeared at one time to be a fairly safe Labour seat, the Labour vote began to be eroded to the point that former Labour group leader, Councillor Leo Madden, only managed to hold the seat with 31.9% of the vote in 2007 from both the Lib Dems (27.2%) and Tories (27%).
The Labour Party was then struck a body blow when Councillors Madden and Fazackerley quit the party to sit as Independents in early 2008. In May of that year, the Conservative candidate, James Williams, sneaked through to take the seat with 31.4% of the vote over the Lib Dems (29.2%) and Labour (28.5%).
In January 2009, along with Central Southsea ward Conservative Councillor Lee Hunt, Cllrs Madden and Fazackerley joined the Liberal Democrats giving them overall control of the council for the first time.
It has a fairly young population with a median age of 33, with 16.36% of the population being over 60 (6.17% over 75). 21.35% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, over 10.09% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 38.7% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 6.48% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 3.28% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 14.94%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so.
A fairly high 12.58% of the population are single-parent households. 13.24% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit will have an effect here.
This will be a fascinating result for what it tells us about the state of play between the Liberal Democrats and Labour and whether the Conservatives will be able to hold onto a seat they gained due to a clearly split left of centre vote in 2008. Last year, they were squeezed into third place with 27.74% of the vote, Labour took 33.82% of the vote with the Liberal Democrats winning with 38.44%. Labour will be throwing everything into this seat so as to re-establish themselves and will be hoping that the lack of an incumbent Liberal Democrat will help them in this. The Liberal Democrat candidate, Ben French, only turns 18 during the campaign and will probably the youngest councillor in Britain if he wins. Councillor Williams will be hoping that incumbency will save him here but I have my doubts. Which way are the Lib Dems playing it - vote Lib Dem to get the Tory out or vote Lib Dem to keep Labour out?
With the growing unpopularity of the Coalition government, the cuts that the local authority will be having to introduce due to the financial situation and the news of the country dropping back into recession, this could be beyond the Conservatives and a real challenge to the Lib Dems having to defend incumbency both in national and local government. Labour might be able to pull it off here if it can get the vote out
If they do, Labour's Ken Ferrett finally would gain a seat having had a torrid old time as the long-suffering Labour candidate in Milton (although he did manage to get the vote up to 21.6% last May from the appalling 6.1% in 2007 (5.6% in 2008)).
So, with all sorts of trepidation, I think the national picture being what it is and an incumbent Tory to hold onto votes the Lib Dems might hope to gain and Labour voters more galvanised, then I predict a Labour victory here - just.
2008 (2011)
James Williams C 844 31.4% (27.74%)
Paul Miles-Knight LD 785 29.2% (38.43%)
Sarah Cook Lab 766 28.5% (33.82%)
Kevin Baker EDP 193 7.2% ( - )
Calum Kennedy Grn 104 3.9% ( - )
Full candidate list: FERRETT Ken (Lab), FRENCH Ben (Lib Dem), WILLIAMS James (Con)
Charles Dickens
The birthplace of Charles Dickens. Outside of London, this is believed to be the most deprived ward in the South of England and most likely to face problems from targeted cuts in sickness benefit, housing benefit, the reduction in grants to charities but, conversely, gain from the particular targeting of resources to the poorest which would be the main concern of the Liberal Democrats to prove their effective influence in national government.
Charles Dickens ward covers the Naval Base, City Centre, Buckland, Portsea and the old council estates of Landport. The University is in the ward with the most of the student accommodation. It includes the beautiful church of St Agatha's, Landport, which served the old estates of the area until it closed in 1954. It became a naval store for 40 years until it was taken back into use as a church by the Traditional Anglican Church and now houses a parish of the Personal Ordinariate of St Peter (Anglicans in union with the RC Church).
Charles Dickens has a young population with a median age of 31, but a considerable older population with 21.1% of the population being over 60 (8.87% over 75), this will reflect the mix of students in the University and older residents on the estates. A low 13.2% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, over 10.2% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 32.89% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, a low 4.19% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at a high 6.48% but this might not include some from the large 'not classifiable' group of 20.61%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. A large 12.43% are Full-Time students and they may have a big influence on this election.
A high 18.94% of the population are single-parent households. A massive 19.28% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well be this year's 'student grant' backlash for the Lib Dems if Labour can get people motivated to vote.
Other than Paulsgrove, I would see this as the seat most likely to go Labour. Last year, the Liberal Democrats held the seat over Labour by 124 votes and thus, for the first time since the ward was created in 2002, it has come back into play for them. Back then, Labour took two of the seats but the poll was topped by the Lib Dems Jacqueline Hancock, who massively outpolled her two LD colleagues. Labour took 46.38% of the votes, the Lib Dems took 41.67% with the Conservatives taking the remaining 11.95%. Since then, it has become a fairly comfortable Liberal Democrat ward with Labour falling to third place and 18.3% of the vote in 2008.
Last year, the Labour vote was up by 10.08% from 2007, the Liberal Democrat vote down by 3.58%. the Conservative vote was up by 4.86% and the Greens by 3.7%. with Respect and the EDP not standing,their 15.06% vote (if it turned out) was spread around the parties. It would appear that Labour picked up the lion's share of those votes. Councillor Wylie will have been delighted to get through the poll and I expect that he will be happy to not be up until 2015. So, a swing to Labour of 6.83% which just failed to get them home.
This year, Councillor Margaret Foster will be defending the seat she has held since 2004 and will be facing Labour's former Nelson Councillor, Sarah Cook (last year's runner-up) as the main challenger and will be hoping to hold off the challenge. The intervention of Aron Fielder as the TUSC (Trade Union and Socialist Coalition)candidate might be a threat to Labour's hopes but it is not certain how left-or-centre votes will split and whether the anti-Labour protest votes when they were in government will be available in the same number this time. The Conservative had a healthy vote of 22.48% last year and it will be interesting to see if it is squeezed at all by the Liberal Democrats campaigning to keep Labour out or if the Tory candidate, Luke Franks, can hold the vote share.
The Greens are again fielding Russell Anderson and it will be interesting to see if he can avoid being squeezed as well.
The student vote is often hard to gauge and it will have been good for the Lib Dems until recently and also for Greens. I would guess that Labour will do better with them this year and and Labour are particularly targeting the large pensioner population with reference to the 'Granny Tax' which has been perceived as a cut in Pensions whilst the Budget helped the top-rate taxpayers. This may be unfair but it is how things are being seen and given that pensioners tend to turn out to vote it might hurt the 'Coalition' parties.
For this reason, I see Labour gaining Charles Dickens ward.
2008 (2011)
Margaret Foster LD 1046 45.0% (36.31%)
Stephen Rogers C 496 21.4% (22.48%)
Keith Crabbe Lab 426 18.3% (32.15%)
David Farley EDP 182 7.8% ( - )
Lee Sprake Ind 172 7.4% ( - )
(Green 9.06%)
Full candidate list: ANDERSON Russell (Green), COOK Sarah (Lab), FIELDER Aron (TUSC) new candidate, FOSTER Margaret (Lib Dem) FRANKS Luke (Con)
Copnor
Copnor is an interesting ward which, normally Conservative, has been a place of some success for the English Democrats who managed to take 17.3% of the vote in 2007, almost matching Labour (17.5%) and the Liberal Democrats (18.9). Their standard-bearer, David Knight, is absent from the ballot after 6 consecutive attempts. The ward has not been overwhelmingly Conservative with the party having managed largish majorities on the basis of a split opposition. Labour and the Liberal Democrats battled for second place here but, since a byelection in early 2008 when the Liberal Democrats gained the seat on a 'Save the Fire Station' ticket with a cracking 55.63% of the vote (the Conservatives regained that seat last May), the Liberal Democrats moved ahead. Last year, both the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats gained votes and the Conservatives fell to a dangerous -for them- 38%, above the the Liberal Democrats (29.87%) and Labour in third (23.59%).
Copnor has a fairly young population with a median age of 35, with 15.51% of the population being over 60 (5.47% over 75). 27.73% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 12.4% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 32.78% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 7.34% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at a low 1.68% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 12.43%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 6.49% are Full-Time students and they may have a big influence on this election.
8.63% of the population are single-parent households. 10.05% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.
So, a fairly middle-class, suburban ward which the Conservatives would be hoping to hold fairly safely except for the intervention of the sitting Councillor, Malcolm Hey, who was deselected by the local Conservatives and may well split the vote. If this happens, the question is who will benefit? On the face of it, the Liberal Democrats should and slight Labour's hopes may well be somewhat hampered by the intervention of Mick Tosh of the TUSC. Where will the fairly well-established ED vote go - it may be that Mr Tosh will gain some of the anti-mainstream party votes. In a very good year for Labour, they could take this seat and the gloriously named John Spiegelhalter would be elected but I don't think this is the year. Maybe Cllr Hey will win re-election, but I doubt it and am putting a punt on the Lib Dem's Alex Bentley (for 12 years, the councillor for Milton) to win through the divided field this year.
Lib Dem Gain
2008 (2011)
Malcolm Hey C 1434 47.7% (38.29%)
Phil Smith LD 923 30.7% (29.87%)
Terence O'Brien Lab 355 11.8% (23.59%)
David Knight EDP 294 9.8% (8.25%)
Full candidate list: BENTLEY Alex (Lib Dem), SPIEGELHALTER John (Lab), TOSH Mick (TUSC), YOUNG Neill (Con)
Central Southsea
Central Southsea is an interesting ward with an interesting recent political history. In 2002 with all 3 seats up for election,, the Conservative's Lee Hunt topped the poll, gaining significantly more votes than his two running mates who lost out to the top two Labour candidates. The Tories took 38.49% of the vote, Labour took 38.45%, the Lib Dems took 15.47% with the remaining votes going to Greens (2.49%), Socialist Alliance (4.2%) and Independent (0.89%). Labour's good showing was perhaps lucky as , in a one-to-one battle, the Conservatives gained a seat from them the next year with 41.2% of the vote ahead of Labour's 36.24% (Lib Dem 18.64%, Soc All 3.92%). After this, Labour fell out of the race and the following year the Liberal Democrat's Howard Jones stormed to first place (38.99%) to take the seat from Labour in third (26.08%), ahead of the Conservatives in second (34.93%). After this, it has been a two battle between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems with the Tories usually winning whilst Labour struggled to keep third place ahead of the Greens. In a sign of things to come, the Conservative victor of 2003 (Debbie Tomes) defected to the Lib Dems but lost her seat to her old party in 2007. In 2008, the Lib Dems held their seat and then, after the defection to them of both remaining sitting Tory councillors (Lee Hunt and Margaret Adair), the seat remains in Lib Dem hands with them winning in 2010 and 2011.
Central Southsea has a young population with a median age of 30, with 15.43% of the population being over 60 (6.22% over 75). 27.15% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 7.79% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 20.54% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 5% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.29% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 11.25%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. A huge 25.99% are Full-Time students and this probably explains the huge swing to Labour last May after the Liberal Democrats nationally were seen to ditch their pledge of student grants.
9.1% of the population are single-parent households. 9.67% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.
Last year saw the Lib Dem vote compared to 2007 rise by 13.4% (technically a gain, but with the sitting former Tory councillor, Margaret Adair), Labour's rose by 14.6%, the Tories fell by 14.5%. I would guess that much of the old Tory vote went to Councillor Adair as it would be surprising and counter to all surveys to not recognise that much of the Labour vote rise came from the student population.
This year, there is a new candidate for the Liberal Democrats (Phil Smith) and he will be hoping to repeat the success of last May when Margaret Adair took almost 43% of the vote. Labour are again fielding Rob Smith who will hope that last year's good share of the vote (27.9%) will be a good base to snatch the seat. The Conservatives (with the brilliantly named Kevan Chippindall-Higgin) will want to re-establish their pre-eminence in the seat, not least by pulling back some of the vote they have lost to the Lib Dems. The problem all parties are facing is whether they can motivate their base to turn out. The last month before these elections have been tough for the Coalition Government and this could well lead many of the Con and Lib Dem voters to stay at home, let alone lose votes to Labour. Labour's hopes are probably not helped by the presence again of the TUSC candidate, Frances Pilling, who will doubtless aim to do will with the more left votes that are present among the students and disenchanted traditional Labour voters.
I am going to go for a Lib Dem hold here but with Labour improving their vote share cutting into the majority.
Lib Dem hold.
2008(2011)
John Ireland LD 1295 41.1% (42.83%)
Massoud Esmaili C 1024 32.5% (23.1%)
John Ferrett Lab 313 9.9% (27.9%)
Betty Burns Grn 247 7.8% ( - )
John Molyneux Ind 159 5.0% ( - )
Alan Evens Ind 113 3.6% ( - )
(TUSC 6.16%)
Full candidate list: CHIPPINDALL-HIGGIN Kevan (Con), MACLENNAN Lucy (Green), PILLING Frances (TUSC), SMITH Phil (Lib Dem), SMITH Rob (Lab)
Cosham
This is a seat of musical chairs for the Conservatives whose sitting councillor was deselected and is now standing in Eastney and Craneswater ward, whilst their candidate here is the incumbent councillor for Baffins ward.
In the all-out elections of 2002, Labour took all three seats with a comfortable, in retrospect, 48.77% of the vote, the Conservatives taking 37.33% and the Liberal Democrats the remaining 13.9%. They lost all their seats in the subsequent three elections to the Conservatives and, whilst retaining 2nd place throughout the election cycles since, Labour have not been close to winning the ward back. Last May, there was a big swing to Labour's Graham Heaney although it is hard to parse the results properly due to the exit from the race of the English Democrats. Compared to 2007 (when this seat was last up for election) The Labour vote rose by 11%, the Conservative fell by 1.2% and the Liberal Democrat vote rose by 0.6%.
Cosham's population has a median age of 38, with 22.34% of the population being over 60 (9.22% over 75). 24.05% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 9.23% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 32.5% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 6.41% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.68% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 18.39%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 6.73% are Full-Time students.
12.14% of the population are single-parent households. 13% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.
The Labour candidate is, once again, former local councillor Graham Heaney who represented this seat for 9 years until 2004 and he will hope that the lack of an incumbency factor will help him to close the not inconsiderable gap that still existed last year. It will require a swing of just under 6.5% for Labour to take the seat from the Tories and he will not be helped in this by the presence of the TUSC candidate, Simon Wade, in the battle for the left-of-centre anti local and national government vote. I don't see the Liberal Democrats doing much here and they must face the possibility of being squeezed. If the Conservatives keep their vote share above 44%, I think they are safe but we don't know whether Councillor Henderson's deselection and the 'chicken run' arrival of Councillor Fleming will go down too well with the local electorate..
A month ago, I would have predicted a fairly safe Conservative hold, but, after the rough month since the budget, getting the vote out may not be easy and a backlash among some may give Labour the seat. It is a toss-up, with the Conservatives the favourites.
2008 (2011)
Terence Henderson C 1749 56.9% (47.83%)
Andrew Silvester Lab 657 21.4% (34.95%)
Alan Webb LD 371 12.1% (17.21%)
David Ward EDP 241 7.8% ( - )
Stephen Holland Senate 57 1.9% ( - )
Full candidate list: FLEMING Jim (Con), GRAY Aiden (Lib Dem), HEANEY Graham (Lab), WADE Simon (TUSC)
Baffins
I would see this as being as close to a slapdown gain for the Liberal Democrats as it is possible to be. They have held this seat since 2002 with the exception of 2008, when the Conservatives just sneaked it by 31 votes. So confident are they of holding this seat that their sitting councillor has moved to the apparently sunnier climes of Cosham. Last May, the Liberal Democrats had a comfortable 13% lead over the Conservatives and they should be safe to retake the seat. The Lib Dem candidate, Darren Sanders, is a former Lambeth councillor who stood for the Lib Dems in Portsmouth North at the last General Election.
Cosham's population has a median age of 37, with 20.99% of the population being over 60 (7.66% over 75). 24.84% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 10.93% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 31.82% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 6.42% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.19% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 17.46%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 6.33% are Full-Time students.
9.43% of the population are single-parent households. 12.39% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.
This is not a seat where Labour would expect to do too well and they would probably be pleased if the returning Barbara Spiegelhalter increases their vote to around 20%. Sarah Coote is standing again for the Green Party (this will be the 9th time) and she will be lucky to get 7% of the vote. The absence of the EDP may help one or other of the candidates but it is hard to guess whom.
It will be interesting to see how the votes split this year given the unpopularity of the Coalition Government, especially in a seat which is a battle between the Coalition partners. Last year, both parties lost votes and, whilst I am fairly sure the Liberal Democrats have a safe gain, the vote share will be interesting.
Liberal Democrat gain
2008 (2011)
Jim Fleming C 1494 41.4% (28.65%)
Michael Andrewes LD 1463 40.5% (41.78%)
Victoria Fry Lab 293 8.1% (15.64%)
Alan Wakeford EDP 205 5.7% (5.57%)
Sarah Coote Grn 156 4.3% (4.95%)
(Independent 3.41%)
Full candidate list: COOTE Sarah (Green), KEMP Jonathan (Con), SANDERS Darren (Lib Dem), SPIEGELHALTER Barbara (Lab)
Milton
Milton is a ward which has consistently elected a Liberal Democrat at local elections since 2002. Only in the good year for the Conservatives in 2008 have they failed to win this seat, although it became very close in 2006 and 2007 when the Lib Dems only held on by 61 and 37 votes.
Last year, the Lib Dem vote rose since 2007 by 2.8% whilst the Conservative vote fell by 10.2% which, in a bad year for the Lib Dems around the country was a pretty impressive performance. The Labour vote rose by 15.5%, from a very low base. When you take into account the lack of a UKIP candidate last year, the fall in the Conservative vote share is even more surprising.
Milton's population has a median age of 35, with 20.05% of the population being over 60 (8.41% over 75). 27.07% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 9.51% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 27.3% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 5.93% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.46% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 14.24%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 13.5% are Full-Time students: this is quite a large number and it will be interesting to see what the student vote turnout is and where it will go.
9.29% of the population are single-parent households. 11.37% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.
This year, the sitting Conservative councillor has stepped down and Joan Payne is the candidate fighting to save the seat but I don't think she will manage it, unless there is some anti-council feeling that she can feed off. Labour's doughty Michelle Treacher is running for the seat this year and she will be hoping to boost the Labour vote and not be caught out by any 'Vote Labour, elect a Tory' tactics. I would predict a straight Lib Dem gain here.
Lib Dem gain
(Just learnt that Cllr Sarah Dineage, the retiring Tory here, has defected to the Liberal Democrats over the last few days...what a place for defections this city is.)
2008 (2011)
Sarah Dinenage C 1835 48.2% (32.17%)
Alex Bentley LD 1584 41.6% (46.23%)
Ken Ferrett Lab 215 5.6% (21.6%)
Robbie Robinson UKIP 175 4.6% ( - )
Full candidate list: PAYNE Joan (Con), PURVIS Will (Lib Dem), TREACHER Michelle (Lab)
Eastney and Craneswater
2008 (2011)
This is an interesting ward which has swung from being comfortable-ish for the Liberal Democrats to being an ultra-marginal. In 2006 Conservative Luke Stubbs took the seat from the Lib Dems by 17 votes, in 2008 the Liberal Democrats held on by only 14 votes from the Conservatives. In 2010, Councillor Stubbs was re-elected with a slightly more comfortable majority of 162 but then it was back to being fairly safe for the Liberal Democrats with a majority of 473 (11.82%). This sort of makes it difficult to call as this is obviously quite a single-minded electorate.
The ward's population has a median age of 36, with 20.82% of the population being over 60 (8.94% over 75). 33.91% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 8.2% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 21.45% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 7.11% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at 2.87% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 14.31%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 12.15% are Full-Time students: this is quite a large number and it will be interesting to see what the student vote turnout is and where it will go.
7.63% of the population are single-parent households. 11.43% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.
This year, the Liberal Democrats are once again fielding Matthew Winnington who narrowly failed to regain the seat in 2010. He will be hoping that he can hold on to the vote share of last year and avoid losing votes to Labour's returning candidate, Rosalie Ward, and to the TUSC's Ben Norman who might gain votes on an anti-Coalition Government protest. The Conservative's Councillor Terry Henderson, having been deselected in Cosham, will hope his long experience and City and County Council level will gain him votes but it is not a good time for a Conservative to be standing given the bad economic news.
In many parts of the country the make up of this ward would make it safely Conservative and the ability of the Liberal Democrats to hold this seat is very impressive, whilst it would be tempting to see this as a swing year which would let the Conservatives in again, I think that Mr Winnington will hold this ward but probably by a less comfortable margin and with the vote share slipping.
Lib Dem hold
Cheryl Buggy LD 1559 46.9% (46.03%)
Gerry Oldfield C 1545 46.5% (34.21%)
Geoff Wade Lab 220 6.6% (15.07%)
(EDP 4.69%)
Full candidate list: HENDERSON Terry (Con), NORMAN Ben (TUSC), WARD Rosalie (Lab), WINNINGTON Matthew (Lib Dem).
St Thomas
2002 Con 46.32 LD 34.96% Lab 18.72%
St Thomas's Ward elected three Conservative councillor's back in 2002, but since then has swung to the Liberal Democrats with a squeezed Labour vote enabling the Lib Dems to hold on from the Conservatives, even if the result has been close. Majorities have been tiny: 102 (2006), 124 (2007), 29 (2008). This was interrupted by the General Election turnout when the Lib Dem's Rob Wood achieved a 750 majority and then all returned to normal with an eye-watering 83 majority last May.
This year the Liberal Democrat incumbent is stepping down and Sandra Stockdale, the Conservative candidate in the past 6 elections in this ward, is now the Liberal Democrat candidate, having defected in June of last year. The Conservatives are fielding Angus Ross, a councillor for the old St Thomas ward in the 1990s, whilst Labour are represented by local barrister, Taj Uddin. The TUSC candidate is Billy Perry.
St Thomas's population has a median age of 34, with 21.5% of the population being over 60 (9.73% over 75). 25.37%% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 6.13% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 22.29% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 5.04% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at a fairly large 4.52% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 15.6%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 21.05% are Full-Time students: this is a large number and it will be interesting to see what the student vote turnout is and where it will go.
10.64% of the population are single-parent households. 13.31% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.
This promises to be quite a fascinating seat because, more than any other, differential turnout and the strenghth of the Labour vote will be the deciding factor. Last May, both the Lib Dem (- 6.7%) and the Conservative vote (-5.07%) fell compared to 2007 and the big gain was for the Labour candidate (+11.77%). If the Labour vote holds steady or rises and the TUSC picks up some 'anti-Coalition' votes from the other parties and picks up votes from the large student population, this could be another long night for the candidates. Sandra Stockdale may hope to bring some supporters across from the Conservatives but whether that will be enough to counter those who might feel somewhat aggrieved by this particular gaome of political musical chairs is an open question. It would be ironic if, having joined the party that constantly squeezed her out, she is beaten by the Conservative candidate. The difficult economic news added to growing unhappiness among voters with the Coalition may lead to Labour having some success here, although not enough to come through the middle and take the seat.
I see this as being a toss-up seat with, I guess, the result dependent on who has the best 'get-out-the-vote' machine and whether a traditional Lib Dems' 'vote Labour, get a Tory' style of campaigning will work when their candidate is the former Tory standard bearer.
I am going to throw caution to the wind and predict a Tory gain here - just!
2008 (2011)
Paula Riches LD 1442 46.4% (40.86%)
Sandra Stockdale C 1413 45.4% (38.73%)
John Speigelhalter Lab 254 8.2% (20.41%)
St Thomas - PERRY Billy (TUSC), ROSS Angus (Con), STOCKDALE Sandra (Lib Dem), UDDIN Taj (Lab)
St Jude
St Jude ward is very similar in terms of political nailbiting to St Thomas- in 2002, three Conservative councillors were comfortably elected but the Liberal Democrats (with Hugh Mason, former Liberal and now Lib Dem) finally gained all the seats in 2010. The majorities have also been tiny: 73 (2003), 85 (2004), 88 (2006), 87 (2007), 112 (2008). This fairly consistent run of squeakers was interrupted by the General Election turnout in 2010 when the Conservatives' sole survivor, Linda Symes, was beaten by a robust 633 votes but it was back to normal last May with a LD majority of 135.
St Jude's population has a median age of 34, with 22.23% of the population being over 60 (an impressive 11.35% over 75). 33.57%% of the population are in managerial or professional occupations, 8.45% in intermediate occupations (Sales, clerical work, service industry), 17.81% in lower supervisory/technical/semi-routine and routine occupations, 5.99% are self-employed. Unemployment according to the census figures stands at a fairly large 4.11% but this might not include some from the 'not classifiable' group of 13.34%. Either way, the unemployment figure may have changed significantly over the last year or so. 16.74% are Full-Time students: this is a large number and it will be interesting to see what the student vote turnout is and where it will go.
4.9% of the population are single-parent households. 11.42% of the population were 'people of working age with a limiting long-term illness'. Government targeting of those claiming sickness benefit could well have an effect here.
This is a fairly wealthy ward that takes in expensive seafront properties and some of the wealthier suburbs. The statistics show it to have a much higher than average (Portsmouth) number of electors classified as large employers, in higher managerial occupations or higher professionals. It also has a higher than average number of full-time students and an impressive number of over 75s, who are usually the most motivated to vote. The ability of the Liberal Democrats to do well here is impressive and the race is clearly between them and the Conservatives. This isn't likely to be the most fertile territory for Labour, although they will be targeting the student vote and playing up the perception that the 'Granny Tax' has effected pensioners unfairly. Given that many will have gained by the higher tax cut, this might also be fertile territories for the Tories as well.
The TUSC are fielding Andy Waterman and, although there is a history of fringe/independent candidates doing fairly well here, I think that he has a hopeless cause (quite appropriate in the ward of St Jude). Labour's Julian Wright can comfort himself that last year Labour had their best performance since 2002 and a 10.21% rise since 2007, the best he can hope for is to hold or increase the Labour vote share.
Last year, the Liberal Democrats (-4.6%) and the Conservatives (5.61%) both suffered a decline in their share of the vote since 2007. The nailbiting is likely to continue this year but given that the Lib Dems are fielding veteran councillor Hugh Mason who has shown an ability to slightly outpoll his party, I reckon he will hold the seat with the Conservatives' David Tompkins becoming the latest disappointed Tory in St Jude. I am putting it in the 'Toss up' column though.
2008 (2011)
Hugh Mason LD 1265 46.7% (42.35%)
Terry Judkins C 1153 42.6% (38.44%)
Alwin Oliver Lab 184 6.8% (19.21%)
Mark Austin Ind 107 3.9% ( - )
So - my predictions? (I reserve the right to change them before election day)
Liberal Democrat gains:
Milton
Baffins
Copnor
Labour Gains:
Paulsgrove
Nelson
Charles Dickens
Toss ups:
Cosham (probable Conservative hold)
St Thomas (probable Conservative gain)
St Jude (probable Liberal Democrat hold)
Lib Democrat holds:
Eastney and Craneswater
Central Southsea
Any comments (no nasty party political posturing please).
Not bad but you underestimated the Portsmouth Lib dems.
ReplyDeleteAye, I certainly did. I am going to post on this shortly. Work and events have prevented me so far. Needless to say, the Lib Dems in Portsmouth have an awesome campaigning machine.
ReplyDelete